Trade DiaryI’m away for the Christmas holidays and looking forward to the break. I haven’t traded recently and have no intention of doing so until the New Year. My supposition is still that after a Christmas rally which could take the FTSE 100 to 5,500 there will be a slow down in January and cliff dive in March 2010 (4,500 FTSE100).
The fundamentals still don’t add up and once the Christmas spirit has worn off the hangover could start to kick in. Many will say this is just the perma-bear in me but I have been patiently following the markets recently and waiting for my entry. The FTSE 100 has been struggling at these heights and whilst there are good indicators my common sense approach i.e. what I see in the shops tells me that year end isn’t going to see stellar growth and usher in a new wave of spending.
I believe my initial assumptions that consumers having enough and would spend to relive stress was wrong. Consumers seem more entrenched and more cost sensitive than ever. In the New Year various schemes helping the consumer run out and this could reveal further stress in the retail space.
In saying all this I will not be trading on this until I see the signs of a reversal and don’t believe this will happen any time soon. I’m going to enjoy time off this Christmas and look forward to what will hopefully be a good year trading in 2010. Best of luck to all and Merry Christmas.
I'm still very bullish on the FTSE 100 as we are over 5,300. Gold is doing great and the dollar is weak. This all looks good for a year end rally to 5,500 for the FTSE 100. 
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