There has been a huge amount of speculation over the end of the recession and the V shaped recovery that may ensue. The apprehension in the market comes from the uncertainty of the fourth quarter this year and how the Christmas shopping season will pan out. From my vantage point I see what could be the basis of a good recovery but then a set of figures comes out like the US monthly consumer credit report which adds to the doubt in my mind. I can’t balance the equation of rising unemployment, consumer retrenchment with rising corporate profits and runaway equity prices.

I think the resilience of the consumer is something that can’t be underestimated. The fact that consumers have been enduring economic turmoil for over a year now may also create the need for an emotional break in for form of splurging at Christmas. For this reason I think spending will hold up into the shopping season and whilst consumers are savvier and shrewder I believe that most will let their hair down over the holiday period and ignore the perils till next year.

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Industrial production falls by 2% for a second consecutive quarter in Japan leading to a technical recession confirmed by deputy governor, Kiyohiko Nishimura. Australia isn’t fairing too well either and our hopes of Asia dampening the western economic pain are quickly diminishing. Wage inflation in China and Vietnam will also put additional pressures on soaring inflation which is seeping into American and western imports. All in all this poses some interesting problems going ahead for struggling bear markets.

I on the plus side am short 5.50 Euro on two separate positions and am quite happy to leave them alone for a while. Merrill Lynch has come out with more write downs and the market seems deliriously delighted and rallies over 200 points. Is this not the third time the banks have raised their collective hands in the air and said “yes, it was me but I’m sorry” with their doe eyes how could they be lying. So off we go and load up on shares. Well apologies if I fail to believe them with my cynical pessimism. There is more to come, a lot more to come.

For the moment I’m looking at selling up and cashing in at around 5050. My previous statement of a new low of 4500 may be hard to reach with oil reaching lower lows. This takes the pressure of the steamer for a while.