My pessimistic outlook for the Irish economy was further reaffirmed when our leader, the man who will steer us out of these economic doldrums stated “As long as I am running this Government, I will run it as I see fit”. This was in response to the oppositions assertions that the government was “bereft of ideas and even the courage to govern”. That’s the kind of for the people talk Ireland has grown accustomed to. Our government believes in a “No, we won’t” approach instead of the “Yes we can” alternative. To outsiders it must appear as if the Irish economy is rudderless and without a captain as the crew argue over the last few morsels.

Today talks begin on cutting €2bn in public spending with the government warning higher taxes are on the way. Yesterday the revelations that the government is spending its way through €55 million a day came as no surprise. Higher taxes are a certainty if ever there was one but the inability of the government to curtail spending is what astonishes me.

In discussion by unions is a tax band increase from 41% to 48% and a 10% pay cut across the public sector. Taoiseach Brian Cowen has said “There is no section of society that can be immune from the changes that we are contemplating.” but how for will public spending pay cuts go.

The enormity of the €16.5 billion required means the €2 billion in spending cuts is only a drop in the ocean. So I wonder who gets to foot the rest of the bill. Send your answers on a postcard to Brian Cowen.

Markets are all pushing higher with the Dow staging another impressive rally, FTSE ending higher and Oil pushing higher, yes even oil is in on the action. The only thing that fell was gold. At this point you will find me musing over the daily charts, my smoking jacket adorned with a slightly raised monocle hinting at vague concern. No, the truth is I’m perplexed, deeply perplexed. Yesterday the FTSE 100 waddled along like a drunken duck neither pushing too high nor falling too low. Today enter stage left drunken duck part two.

I don’t know where to best enter under these conditions. Even though I’m 5.50 short I want a decent push higher followed by a good fall lower. My last trade was at around 5400 and hasn’t gone too far either way. With oil making a push higher yesterday will this put a dampener on a rally or will we see this as a turning point lower. I’m inclined to believe we are heading lower. All we need now is bad employment figures on Friday. The ADP report yesterday was the curve ball the market wasn’t expecting and as we know the government’s figures and the ADP rarely tally.

For my part I will be sitting on my hands till a move past 5450 allows me another short entry. Till then I will just have to hope the little drunken duck starts on shots.

The Irish Economy
On a more regional note NCB stockbrokers say the Irish economy is in an extremely weakened position and predicts a recession. How far behind the curve do you have to be? Yesterday the live register figure jumped 17,429 for June to 238,240 the second largest increase on record. From my perspective we are six months away from the messiest period in recent Irish economic history. The Celtic tiger seems to have teamed up with the drunken duck and is downing tequila slammers. From a ground level the Irish and Spanish economies are in serious trouble. Spain has the advantage of being a few months ahead but over here we are accelerating towards an economic correction equal to our vulgar excesses.