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Long Dow As It Rallies 900 Points

posted in Trade Diary  By Chris on October 14th, 2008

I seem to have developed the market jinx a rare but powerful affliction that gives me the power to incorrectly predict market movements. As readers will have seen I was caught badly wrong on FTSE positions which have cost me dearly. Yesterday as markets rallied I took a positing out on the DOW as it had rallied 600 as I thought it would fall a hundred at the close. I left the monitor on with CNBC in the background and went off to cook a horrendous meal, my version of the India Nargisi Kofta. When I left I was 80 Euro up and quite relaxed with only 30 minutes to go to the close. When I came back I was down badly and had destroyed good food. My only saving grace was I bought DOW March futures which will allow the rally to peak and drop getting me out with hopefully little impact.

Not a good few days for me but it has shown I lack the experience to deal in volatile markets but with 10% moves how do you trade with a tight stop? I have relatively maintained my capital and over the next few days that’s my key goal. The temptation to make quick gains like last night has proven costly at best.

Hope you are all fairing better than I am and happy and safe trading.

So last night we rejoiced and saw a record 300 point plus rally on the DOW. Tune in to CNBC and what do we have, yes you guessed it a plethora of “is this the market bottom” and “have we reached capitulation point”. Baaaaaa I’m sick of these rampantly uneducated and uninformed American views (Disclaimed: The European show is great and I love watching it). What is it with these people, one day it’s one view and the next a contradictory view. Where’s the consistence?

So to my new favourite indicator (could someone please actually build this it would be great) is the CNBC Sell Indicator. It works like this. Once they come on air after any rally and proclaim any of the following you should short the market.

* So is now a good time to buy banks?
* Capitulation (Favourite word of the day)
* This time it’s different!
* Has the market bottomed?
* Financials leading the way (Yes down)
* Searching for value

Feel free to develop this further and add to this list. If we can devise some way of scanning the airwaves and automating short selling we will be rich beyond belief.

So after that rant and my previous short being stopped out for 365 Euro profit I’m looking to jump back in today. With earnings from key figures like Coca Cola, BlackRock, J.P. Morgan, Bank of New York, and Merrill Lynch it’s going to be an interesting day. As inflation is running at 5% and global markets slowing where are the great profits going to come from, where is the great value? As stated yesterday over a five year period your going to gain but I’m looking at 2011 as my earliest get out on equities and going to continue shorting all the way there.

I’m a big fan of CNBC and watch it in the morning before work and enjoy some great reporting and analysis from the European squawk box team. Key industry insights and probing questions designed to deliver an informed and entertaining show.

Forward onto lunch when I tune back in to the American squawk box for the pre market open and the diatribe of mangled one sided commentary. Joe, Becky and team do try to keep it light-hearted but this inaneness often borders on belittling. Throw into the mix Jim screaming Cramer and you have a total free for all of blissful ignorance.

Cramer is the kind of American that goes travelling around Europe screaming at the locals wondering why they don’t speak English, his language. He is opinionated and arrogant to the extreme and whilst I admire him for the work he has done his stage antics provoke nothing more that an annoying, whining adolescent drone that adds nothing to the show. If he has an opinion which he always does why can’t he articulate himself and speak like a grownup.

So Jim, grow up and stop whining.

 
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