My views recently haven’t wavered much and my prediction of an Obama rally is something I still haven’t discounted. If the new president gets his team into place quickly and declares decisive action (whatever that action is) we may get a relief rally. If we do we could rally back to 4200 on the FTSE 100 but in the meantime my strategy is neutral as I weigh up my options. I may dip in and out but until we allow settling in time for the new presidential team I can’t help feeling there is also risk to the upside.

My plan is to wait as I have been burned too many times before for the rally to occur. Then I start small positions building into a larger short on the FTSE. For the moment anything around 4000 and I will buy small amounts with tight stops. Here is a breakdown of the longer-term plan.

Entry: 4200 – 4500 FTSE (June Contracts)
Exit: 3700
Stop (Mental): 4500
Point Size: 12 Euro ( 3 x 4)
Estimated Return: 3000

Wow what a week. At the moment we have friends over and I haven’t been spending too much time following the markets. I had expected the Obama rally but had thought FTSE 100 would go to 5000 before falling back. I also thought the rally would merge into the Christmas rally and we would be looking at a happier Christmas. However markets had another idea and my shorts never went in so I’m sitting on the sidelines which I’m happy about.

I’m more focused now on making a few good trades and leaving them work. I’m in this to make money and after losing everything I made I’m not in the mood to give back more. I have one existing bad trade to close and once that is done I will sit back and re evaluate the recent market moves.

With an unprecedented cut by the BOE of 1.5 percentage points and .5 by the ECB there is allot to digest out there. Deflation seems to be the new favourite word on the street and should this occur things are going to get very ugly. For the moment I’m sitting tight.