Trade Diary
Well what a start to 2009 and as promised it started with the same hi octane explosiveness as 2008. For my part I have been getting back into the daily routine after a pleasant Christmas break. My one Christmas trade (out of boredom) nearly ruined Christmas and had me swearing at Santa and his *u**ing rally. This was what I can only refer to as stupid trade of the year made by a similarly apt individual. The trade was 4 Euro sell at 4300 on June contracts. I know, what the hell! Anyway today I closed out for 100 loss which was a lucky lesson.
So back to more pressing matters and the rushed preparations for the Obama rally. I am at this stage 80% confident in a rally once the inauguration is complete. This is why at present I am trying to scale back some of my shorts in order to get a better price after the rally. My prediction is a return above 4500 on the FTSE 100 and 8800 on the Dow. I believe this will carry through till early March and assuming the dire news keeps flowing, job losses keep mounting and stimulus packages keep churning the downward trend will resume. At the moment we seem to be very range bound and until we break below 4000 with volume this will maintain the status quo. I do belive new lows will be made in the early part of the year around mid March.
Over the next week I will take whatever profits I can and await the ride higher on the Obama “Yes we can” plane. Then I will sell into anything above 4500 on the FTSE 100. Here is the trade plan.
Entry: 4500 + FTSE 100 June 2009
Exit: 4000 – 3800 (Ease out x 3)
Stop (Mental): 4800
Point Size: 12 Euro (4 x 3.00)
Estimated Value: 4000+
I'm still very bullish on the FTSE 100 as we are over 5,300. Gold is doing great and the dollar is weak. This all looks good for a year end rally to 5,500 for the FTSE 100. 
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Hi Mate – a happy new year to you!
I think you are right to sell into a rally (if it comes) we are close to support at the moment. But aren’t you 9 short already? (see below) – you musta been sweating when the market hit near 4650
Current Position Open: (Sell FTSE March 4364) +18 (-3.00 Euro)
Current Position Open: (Sell FTSE March 4298) -189 (-3.00 Euro)
Current Position Open: (Sell FTSE March 4306) -160 (-3.00 Euro)
It did put a bit of unnecessary stress after Christmas as I added a stupid 4 Euro short to that list so was running 16 Euro short. I have closed out all for a decent profit today but I was very worried the 2008 Christmas rally would run into the Obama rally (yet to occur) and keep me well under water. It panned out as planned in the end but anxious times indeed. How is the New Year starting for you?
wow a 16 short when 4600 odd came round musta felt like your crown jewels were in a vice!
As for me so far so good – took advantage of the rally over the end of year.
I think alot of bears were caught napping by that as some cheeky traders realised that most people were likely away from their desks. But was caught a little off guard by the sharp movement on Wed – so went flat on a number of positions to see which way things would jump. But my short on BSY that closed for a tidy sum kept me happy.
Have to admit though I tend to trade shares rather than indices – so currently long Walmart, Johnson + Johnson, Pepsi, and Diageo
short M&S Pfizer BP & RSDB.
Usually have a blend of shorts and longs, but I don’t hold positions for anywhere near as long as you mate
But the current market is being driven by financials and the miners/oilers (as usual, just take a look at HSBA it’s been slaughtered and it’s in the top 5 of the FTSE so it’s movements will have a huge effect) and looking at the charts, 4000 looks possible and then we’ll see who wins between the bears and bulls when that happens.
take care mate, and be lucky!
Jez